🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.