Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting Israel since his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.